Reading the game: Football (not soccer), liquidity, and securities lending
07 July 2025
With the World Cup in motion, Matt Chessum, executive director, equity and analytic products at S&P Global Market Intelligence, discusses how this global event impacts behaviours in the market
Image: Shutterstock
Every four years, the World Cup takes over. Desks get a little quieter, attention drifts between prices and matches, and trading can become more concentrated around the main fixtures. For securities lending, that matters because even small shifts in participation can affect how quickly inventory is offered, borrowed, and repriced. The tournament does not change the macro backdrop, but it can change the rhythm of the market: when people trade, how closely they watch risk, and how much liquidity is available at key moments.
In a market where revenues are increasingly driven by utilisation, positioning, and specific pockets of demand, those temporary changes in behaviour can be meaningful.
From volatility to behaviour: A change in formation
Securities lending has long been associated with volatility. When markets move sharply, short selling, hedging, and borrow demand usually follow. Recent data, however, suggests the picture is becoming more nuanced. In May 2026, global securities lending revenues reached US$1.724 billion, up 43 per cent year-on-year (YoY), even though the VIX had already fallen back from its 2026 intraday high of 35.30 on 9 March to average around 17.3 in May. That points to revenue growth being supported by more than headline volatility. Higher balances, greater use of available inventory, and concentrated demand in individual names are all becoming more important.
The same pattern is visible across regions. Asian equity lending revenues reached US$487 million in May, up 113 per cent YoY, while EMEA equity revenues rose 55 per cent to US$266 million. These figures point to a market increasingly driven by regional dispersion, specials activity, and sector-specific demand.
That is the most interesting development. Markets are not only responding to big macro set pieces; they are also being shaped by the way participants behave within them.
When kick-off changes liquidity
Big matches, especially knockout games, can lead to short but meaningful changes in trading behaviour. Participation may dip, particularly in football-heavy markets, and intraday activity can become less even. Volumes usually recover later, but those windows still matter. For a short period, the market can be left with a thinner defensive line: less depth, fewer active participants and less room for error.
In a market driven by microstructure, that matters. Securities lending does not need a major macro shock to generate strong revenues. Sometimes a temporary mismatch between supply and demand is enough. When participation drops, even modest borrow activity can lead to: higher utilisation, increased borrow costs, and reduced availability in harder-to-borrow securities.
Intraday lending data helps bring these effects into view. End-of-day figures remain useful, but they can miss how quickly conditions move during the session. The recent SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is a good example. In the days after listing, intraday lending data showed shares on loan rising from around 15,500 to more than 36 million, with intraday and end-of-day figures differing by millions of shares at certain points. If you are trying to read the market in real time, that difference matters.
Broad-market ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, and IWM show the same point from a different angle. They are often used to maintain exposure when single-stock liquidity is less reliable. SPY, in particular, has deep secondary trading, meaningful short interest, and extensive options activity, making it a natural tool for hedging and tactical positioning when investors want to stay in the game without taking on too much single-name risk.
This is not volatility in the traditional sense. It is a change in liquidity patterns. And, unlike the World Cup, there are no convenient hydration breaks to let the market reset. When liquidity thins, pressure can often build quickly.
Retail flows and sudden imbalances
Retail participation adds another layer of complexity. It has grown significantly in recent years and is often more episodic and sentiment-led than institutional positioning. At times, it can look like a late run into the box: sudden, crowded, and capable of changing the pattern of play very quickly.
GameStop and AMC remain useful examples of how retail attention can feed through into securities lending. In both cases, social-media-driven buying, elevated short interest, and limited borrow availability have, at times, contributed to sharp moves in borrow costs and short-covering pressure. More recent IPO and thematic examples show the same mechanics in a more institutional setting. CoreWeave has generated approximately US$758 million in securities lending revenue since listing at a 26.43 per cent volume-weighted average fee, while CATL has generated around US$137.7 million at an 8.14 per cent volume-weighted average fee.
For securities lending, the important point is that retail and event-driven flows can create sudden shifts in supply and demand. Those shifts can lead to:
鈥� Rapid increases in borrowing activity in specific names
鈥� Unexpected tightening in lendable supply
鈥� Short-lived spikes in borrowing costs
Unlike institutional positioning, which often builds gradually, these dynamics can be abrupt and difficult to predict. APAC specials revenues reached US$982.6 million year-to-date by May, up 73 per cent YoY and their highest level since specials tracking began in 2010. That shows how a relatively small group of high-demand names can drive a disproportionate share of returns. The play can change quickly, and not everyone is in position when it does.
ETFs: The liquidity anchor
ETFs now play a central role in both trading and securities lending. They become particularly important when liquidity in the underlying securities is more fragmented. If single-stock liquidity becomes harder to rely on, ETFs can provide a cleaner way to maintain exposure. The data clearly shows this. ETF lending revenues reached US$162 million in May 2026, up 81 per cent YoY. Average value on loan rose 30 per cent to US$166 billion, while average fees increased 40 per cent to 1.14 per cent.
ETFs provide:
鈥� Immediate access to single or broad market exposure
鈥� Deep secondary market liquidity
鈥� A highly efficient vehicle for shorting and hedging
During periods of disrupted participation, ETFs can absorb a greater share of trading flow. Investors looking for quick exposure without the friction of single-stock execution naturally gravitate towards them. This is not just a short-term feature. ETF lending programme availability has more than doubled since 2020 to around US$743 billion. In 2025, ETFs accounted for 7.7 per cent of lending revenues despite representing only 1.6 per cent of available supply.
The same applies across ETF asset classes. HYG and LQD are commonly used for high-yield and investment-grade credit exposure, TLT for long-duration US Treasuries, and EEM or FXI for emerging market and China exposure. In Q1 2026, ETF lending revenues rose 48 per cent YoY to US$394 million, as investors used ETFs for hedging and rapid repositioning, particularly across leveraged equity and credit products. When cash market liquidity is patchy, ETFs often become the cleaner way to adjust risk while the rest of the market gets back into shape.
That has clear implications for securities lending. ETF shares are often borrowed to support hedging and short exposure, creating a steady source of demand. ETF activity can also act as a useful read-through for broader positioning, particularly when index-level exposure starts to diverge from single-name demand. Concentration matters too. In 2025, just five ETFs generated 18.6 per cent of total ETF lending revenues, 10 generated 28 per cent, and 25 generated 41 per cent.
At the single-stock level, large and heavily-traded technology names such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir show how narrative, momentum, and hedging demand can overlap. When positioning becomes crowded, borrow demand can rise quickly, particularly where investors use short exposure to manage concentration risk or hedge broader thematic trades. These names do not need to become hard-to-borrow to matter. Even small changes in utilisation and fees can show that the tempo is changing.
In that sense, ETFs have become the market鈥檚 midfield engine: connecting flows, supporting liquidity, and keeping positioning moving when conditions shift.
Football, flows, and market microstructure
The World Cup does not change valuations or earnings directly. What it changes is behaviour. It can compress trading into narrower windows, alter participation patterns, and amplify the impact of marginal or at times, regional flows.
In a market increasingly defined by microstructure, those changes matter. Securities lending data captures them through utilisation, supply, and pricing in a way that broader indicators, such as the VIX, often do not. Fixed income provides another example. Government bond lending revenues reached US$254 million in May, up 41 per cent YoY, with average balances above US$1.7 trillion and utilisation at 23.9 per cent. The same liquidity and positioning themes are visible well beyond equities.
The football comparison works because matches are rarely won through constant dominance. More often, they are decided by moments of imbalance: a gap in the defensive line, a sudden change of tempo, or a well-timed run. Markets are moving in a similar direction. The broad macro picture still matters, but the edge increasingly comes from spotting short-lived dislocations before everyone else has reorganised.
Conclusion: Playing the margins
Securities lending is increasingly a market of fine margins. Headline volatility still matters, but it is no longer the whole story. Liquidity, participation, and positioning now carry more weight. Retail flows and ETFs have accelerated that shift, creating a market where small changes in behaviour can have a bigger impact than many traditional indicators would suggest.
That is why events such as the World Cup are worth watching. They may not change the macro story, but they can quickly shift attention, participation, and liquidity. For securities lending desks, these moments are not distractions; they are gaps to read and potential opportunities to act on.
The broader lesson is straightforward. Success in markets, as in football, depends on reading the game properly: anticipating pressure, adapting quickly, and responding appropriately when others are slow to react.
P.S. It鈥檚 coming home.
In a market where revenues are increasingly driven by utilisation, positioning, and specific pockets of demand, those temporary changes in behaviour can be meaningful.
From volatility to behaviour: A change in formation
Securities lending has long been associated with volatility. When markets move sharply, short selling, hedging, and borrow demand usually follow. Recent data, however, suggests the picture is becoming more nuanced. In May 2026, global securities lending revenues reached US$1.724 billion, up 43 per cent year-on-year (YoY), even though the VIX had already fallen back from its 2026 intraday high of 35.30 on 9 March to average around 17.3 in May. That points to revenue growth being supported by more than headline volatility. Higher balances, greater use of available inventory, and concentrated demand in individual names are all becoming more important.
The same pattern is visible across regions. Asian equity lending revenues reached US$487 million in May, up 113 per cent YoY, while EMEA equity revenues rose 55 per cent to US$266 million. These figures point to a market increasingly driven by regional dispersion, specials activity, and sector-specific demand.
That is the most interesting development. Markets are not only responding to big macro set pieces; they are also being shaped by the way participants behave within them.
When kick-off changes liquidity
Big matches, especially knockout games, can lead to short but meaningful changes in trading behaviour. Participation may dip, particularly in football-heavy markets, and intraday activity can become less even. Volumes usually recover later, but those windows still matter. For a short period, the market can be left with a thinner defensive line: less depth, fewer active participants and less room for error.
In a market driven by microstructure, that matters. Securities lending does not need a major macro shock to generate strong revenues. Sometimes a temporary mismatch between supply and demand is enough. When participation drops, even modest borrow activity can lead to: higher utilisation, increased borrow costs, and reduced availability in harder-to-borrow securities.
Intraday lending data helps bring these effects into view. End-of-day figures remain useful, but they can miss how quickly conditions move during the session. The recent SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is a good example. In the days after listing, intraday lending data showed shares on loan rising from around 15,500 to more than 36 million, with intraday and end-of-day figures differing by millions of shares at certain points. If you are trying to read the market in real time, that difference matters.
Broad-market ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, and IWM show the same point from a different angle. They are often used to maintain exposure when single-stock liquidity is less reliable. SPY, in particular, has deep secondary trading, meaningful short interest, and extensive options activity, making it a natural tool for hedging and tactical positioning when investors want to stay in the game without taking on too much single-name risk.
This is not volatility in the traditional sense. It is a change in liquidity patterns. And, unlike the World Cup, there are no convenient hydration breaks to let the market reset. When liquidity thins, pressure can often build quickly.
Retail flows and sudden imbalances
Retail participation adds another layer of complexity. It has grown significantly in recent years and is often more episodic and sentiment-led than institutional positioning. At times, it can look like a late run into the box: sudden, crowded, and capable of changing the pattern of play very quickly.
GameStop and AMC remain useful examples of how retail attention can feed through into securities lending. In both cases, social-media-driven buying, elevated short interest, and limited borrow availability have, at times, contributed to sharp moves in borrow costs and short-covering pressure. More recent IPO and thematic examples show the same mechanics in a more institutional setting. CoreWeave has generated approximately US$758 million in securities lending revenue since listing at a 26.43 per cent volume-weighted average fee, while CATL has generated around US$137.7 million at an 8.14 per cent volume-weighted average fee.
For securities lending, the important point is that retail and event-driven flows can create sudden shifts in supply and demand. Those shifts can lead to:
鈥� Rapid increases in borrowing activity in specific names
鈥� Unexpected tightening in lendable supply
鈥� Short-lived spikes in borrowing costs
Unlike institutional positioning, which often builds gradually, these dynamics can be abrupt and difficult to predict. APAC specials revenues reached US$982.6 million year-to-date by May, up 73 per cent YoY and their highest level since specials tracking began in 2010. That shows how a relatively small group of high-demand names can drive a disproportionate share of returns. The play can change quickly, and not everyone is in position when it does.
ETFs: The liquidity anchor
ETFs now play a central role in both trading and securities lending. They become particularly important when liquidity in the underlying securities is more fragmented. If single-stock liquidity becomes harder to rely on, ETFs can provide a cleaner way to maintain exposure. The data clearly shows this. ETF lending revenues reached US$162 million in May 2026, up 81 per cent YoY. Average value on loan rose 30 per cent to US$166 billion, while average fees increased 40 per cent to 1.14 per cent.
ETFs provide:
鈥� Immediate access to single or broad market exposure
鈥� Deep secondary market liquidity
鈥� A highly efficient vehicle for shorting and hedging
During periods of disrupted participation, ETFs can absorb a greater share of trading flow. Investors looking for quick exposure without the friction of single-stock execution naturally gravitate towards them. This is not just a short-term feature. ETF lending programme availability has more than doubled since 2020 to around US$743 billion. In 2025, ETFs accounted for 7.7 per cent of lending revenues despite representing only 1.6 per cent of available supply.
The same applies across ETF asset classes. HYG and LQD are commonly used for high-yield and investment-grade credit exposure, TLT for long-duration US Treasuries, and EEM or FXI for emerging market and China exposure. In Q1 2026, ETF lending revenues rose 48 per cent YoY to US$394 million, as investors used ETFs for hedging and rapid repositioning, particularly across leveraged equity and credit products. When cash market liquidity is patchy, ETFs often become the cleaner way to adjust risk while the rest of the market gets back into shape.
That has clear implications for securities lending. ETF shares are often borrowed to support hedging and short exposure, creating a steady source of demand. ETF activity can also act as a useful read-through for broader positioning, particularly when index-level exposure starts to diverge from single-name demand. Concentration matters too. In 2025, just five ETFs generated 18.6 per cent of total ETF lending revenues, 10 generated 28 per cent, and 25 generated 41 per cent.
At the single-stock level, large and heavily-traded technology names such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir show how narrative, momentum, and hedging demand can overlap. When positioning becomes crowded, borrow demand can rise quickly, particularly where investors use short exposure to manage concentration risk or hedge broader thematic trades. These names do not need to become hard-to-borrow to matter. Even small changes in utilisation and fees can show that the tempo is changing.
In that sense, ETFs have become the market鈥檚 midfield engine: connecting flows, supporting liquidity, and keeping positioning moving when conditions shift.
Football, flows, and market microstructure
The World Cup does not change valuations or earnings directly. What it changes is behaviour. It can compress trading into narrower windows, alter participation patterns, and amplify the impact of marginal or at times, regional flows.
In a market increasingly defined by microstructure, those changes matter. Securities lending data captures them through utilisation, supply, and pricing in a way that broader indicators, such as the VIX, often do not. Fixed income provides another example. Government bond lending revenues reached US$254 million in May, up 41 per cent YoY, with average balances above US$1.7 trillion and utilisation at 23.9 per cent. The same liquidity and positioning themes are visible well beyond equities.
The football comparison works because matches are rarely won through constant dominance. More often, they are decided by moments of imbalance: a gap in the defensive line, a sudden change of tempo, or a well-timed run. Markets are moving in a similar direction. The broad macro picture still matters, but the edge increasingly comes from spotting short-lived dislocations before everyone else has reorganised.
Conclusion: Playing the margins
Securities lending is increasingly a market of fine margins. Headline volatility still matters, but it is no longer the whole story. Liquidity, participation, and positioning now carry more weight. Retail flows and ETFs have accelerated that shift, creating a market where small changes in behaviour can have a bigger impact than many traditional indicators would suggest.
That is why events such as the World Cup are worth watching. They may not change the macro story, but they can quickly shift attention, participation, and liquidity. For securities lending desks, these moments are not distractions; they are gaps to read and potential opportunities to act on.
The broader lesson is straightforward. Success in markets, as in football, depends on reading the game properly: anticipating pressure, adapting quickly, and responding appropriately when others are slow to react.
P.S. It鈥檚 coming home.
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